Posted at 8:47 PM on Sunday, September 14, 2008 by David Horowitz
Not being a pollster I have little to lose by predicting the race, and of course there's a lot of water yet to pass under the bridge -- events, debates, revised strategies etc. But right now I don't see this as a close race. If the present trend holds, McCain-Palin will win 331 electoral votes to 203 for Obama-Biden.
I think it's already evident that the current toss-up, lean-McCain and lean-Obama states likely to fall to McCain include Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Washington, Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, and Ohio. If you add Michigan, the above total becomes 348-186.
The pivotal state in these calculations is Pennsylvania which has twenty crucial electoral votes and hasn't gone Republican in a presidential election since 1988. A Zogby poll today shows McCain up by 5 points in Pennsylvania. Zogby and most of the other polls have a long history of underestimating Republican strength. If Pennsylvania goes for McCain it's a pretty safe bet that the other states mentioned will also go McCain.
If McCain-Palin win in a landslide, you read it here first.
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