What
issue(s) dominated the presidential campaign two months ago—foreign
policy, taxes, health care? That seems like ancient history now. The
one question that everyone wants Barack Obama and John McCain to answer
now is: What will you do to fix the economy? This question is certainly
understandable, but breathtakingly preposterous and pathetic.
Naturally, America’s attention is focused on
the economic crisis. It is clear that something—actually, a lot of
things—have gone terribly wrong. Our financial system is in tatters,
the housing market continues to deteriorate, and even once-mighty GM
appears terminal. We worry about our banks being safe, our jobs being
secure, and our retirement plans surviving the ongoing economic
earthquake. We are uncertain, scared and/or stunned. More than anything
else, American voters want the candidates to reassure them that
everything will be okay and that a President Obama or President McCain
will restore normalcy.
As natural and understandable as everyone’s
concern is, the glib question posed by journalists and pollsters—“What
would you do to fix the economy?”—is preposterous. Do you really think
that the presidential toolbox contains instruments to determine the
“right” price for each of the millions of houses; the “right” interest
rate for each of the millions of mortgages; the ability to unwind
trillions of dollars of leverage in the financial system; the wisdom to
manage banks, insurance companies, pension funds, etc.—and to attempt
such undertakings without causing painful economic disruptions? Forget
the Constitution here (the political class already has). Even if you
give the president unlimited powers, he and his team—no matter how
bright they are and how hard they try—cannot possibly “fix” our
enormous and complex economic mess.
It is pathetic to see Americans holding out
blind hope that a mere president has some sort of magic wand that can
make these problems go away so that we can live happily every after.
The very question—“What can you do to fix the economy?”—is shockingly
ignorant. It presumes that the President of the United States either
has supernatural powers (see “President, Savior, or Santa Claus”)
or that he has or should have the political power to construct a “great
society” with a vibrant economy through central planning. Such a
question is more appropriate for a communist country than for a free
(formerly free?) society.
Neither candidate is speaking economic truth.
There is no clear explanation of how government policies caused this
mess. Neither candidate understands that if markets are allowed to
adjust prices to reflect actual values, then the economy will return to
solid footing faster than if government continues to nationalize
businesses, inflate credit, and engage in the hubris of central
planning.
Instead, economic nonsense emanates from both
camps. McCain, for example, wants government to prop up housing prices
even though the housing crisis was caused by policies and practices
that resulted in houses reaching prices far beyond the affordability
level of many Americans. The market is trying to correct over-inflated
housing prices to lower, more rational levels, yet those who would be
president want prices to remain at lofty, unsustainable levels. Of
course, the reason for this is to try to keep the myriad financial
assets based on home mortgages from crashing. But until those
malinvestments are liquidated, the scarce capital will be used to prop
up essentially bankrupt firms instead of creating new wealth, thereby
retarding economic growth.
Speaking of capital, the Federal Reserve is
reported to be supplying trillions of dollars of capital to financial
institutions. These reports aren’t quite accurate. True capital
represents actual savings. When the Fed “injects liquidity” into the
financial system, it is creating ersatz capital out of thin air. That
“capital” has no economic substance, but it does have the potential to
distort economic decisions, just as any other inflationary policy
distorts activity by making capital appear to be more abundant than it
really is.
Politics is entirely responsible for the
present crisis being as extensive as it is. The reason is that no
president wants to let market corrections happen on his watch. Thus,
instead of letting Long Term Capital Management collapse in 1998, which
would have punctured the stock market bubble and triggered demands for
prudent limits on the creation of derivative instruments by financial
firms, President Bill Clinton and the Fed managed to pull some strings,
paper over the problem, and issue easy credit. The result was a bigger
stock market bubble and the beginning of the real-estate bubble. Rather
than let the market sort things out after 9/11, Bush leaned on the Fed
to lower interest rates, and the housing bubble really took off.
Today, because of those earlier political
interventions, there are more malinvestments than ever. The liquidation
of these massive malinvestments would be so jarring that all of
official Washington is striving to postpone the day of reckoning with
government controls and more easy credit from the Fed. Sooner or later,
though (and it looks like sooner) economic reality will prevail and the
necessary adjustments will take place. To the extent that any president
can delay that inevitable process, the ultimate adjustments will be
that much more painful.