Thrift used to be
a virtue in America. In Asia, thrift remains a way of life—for example,
it is estimated that the average Chinese family’s thrift rate is 30 to
40 percent—which helps explain the rapid growth rates there.
A century ago, the sociologist Max Weber
credited the so-called “Protestant work ethic,” combining thrift with
hard work as the engine of America’s economic preeminence. How times
have changed! While many Americans are thrifty, many are not. The
political divide of blue-state and red-state Americans is replicated in
an economic division between red-ink and black-ink personal finances.
The gross totals of debt in the United States
are, well, gross. Private debt owed by Americans is nearly $14
trillion—approximately the size of our Gross Domestic Product.
Corporate debt exceeds $6 trillion. Uncle Sam’s official debt is $9.4
trillion. If one includes unfunded liabilities for Social Security,
Medicare, and who-knows-what, then you can add several more multiples
of GDP to our total national indebtedness.
What explains this mountain of debt? Primarily,
it reflects an attitudinal shift, the gradual supplanting of the ethos
of deferring present gratification by an ethos of “enjoy now, pay
later.” This ethos, so evident in the spectacle of millions of
Americans drowning in nearly a trillion dollars of high-interest credit
card debt, is manifest at the macroeconomic level in our country’s
public polices. The massive debt of the federal government is the
costly result of special-interest politics, enabled by the evolution of
our political system from a constitutional republic, strictly limited
in its powers, to a nanny-state democracy that redistributes wealth and
tries to be all things to all people. Voters like politicians who spend
money to their benefit, but detest politicians who tax them, and so all
the political incentives lead toward deficit spending and
ever-increasing debt.
The federal government is partly to blame for
corporate debt, too. By imposing multiple taxes on businesses,
including up to 35 percent of corporate profits, Uncle Sam and state
governments have decreased the ability of businesses to self-finance
improvements and expansions. Combined with the policy of making
business debt tax-deductible, federal tax law has increased the
incentives for businesses to borrow.
On the individual level, besides the
credit-card junkies, many Americans have more debt than savings,
primarily due to mortgages on their houses. How many Americans realize
that a 30-year mortgage on a house at 6-percent interest results in
eventually paying the lender more than twice the sales price of the
house? In China, by contrast, 80 percent of houses are paid for in
cash, freeing those homeowners from having to pay a significant portion
of long-term income to a lender.
One reason why so many Americans buy houses on
credit is, once again, the incentive created by tax laws. Those laws
discourage savings by taxing interest, dividend, and capital-gain
income, and encourage by making mortgage debt tax-deductible. But there
is an additional, more insidious factor: inflation. The ongoing
depreciation of the dollar, caused by ever-increasing government
spending and the replacement of a gold standard by fiat money,
discourages thrift while encouraging debt. After all, why save dollars,
if those dollars are going to lose purchasing power? And why not go
into debt, since you will probably be able to repay those debts with
cheaper dollars?
There are signs, though, that America’s debt
burden has reached a critical stage. As U.S. debt has escalated,
domestic economic growth has become increasingly sluggish, despite
surging global growth and marvelous technological breakthroughs. Each
dollar of debt in 1960 produced 64 cents of GDP growth, but four
decades later, each dollar of debt generates only 15 cents of GDP
growth. We’re getting less bang for our borrowed buck than ever before.
The marginal productivity of debt is trending toward the point of
accomplishing absolutely nothing.
All debts eventually are settled. The honorable
way is for debts to be repaid with money that has retained its
purchasing power or assets of comparable worth. There are two
dishonorable ways of retiring debt: repudiate it outright and default
on repayment, or repay it with depreciated currency. Since the federal
government is the largest single debtor and authorizes a Federal
Reserve-controlled money monopoly, it will determine which of the three
approaches to debt will prevail. Of these three, I see no possibility
of Uncle Sam ever having the political will to repay debts the
honorable way; nor do I anticipate outright repudiation, which would
plunge the world into depression, maybe even war. That leaves the
entrenched decades-long trend of dollar depreciation as the most likely
course. The government will continue to overspend, the Fed will
continue to inflate, and dollar-holders will continue to repay debts in
depreciating dollars until creditors no longer accept those shrinking
dollars.
Debt and its Siamese twin—dollar
depreciation—likely will continue in the U.S. until the whole financial
system and monetary regime arrive at some cataclysmic denouement.