EVERYONE had been dancing around the idea of Israel-Syria peace talks for at least a year. Why are they happening now? Will they get anywhere?

Negotiations are under way now because all those involved are under various kinds of pressure.

Syria's economy is in the doldrums. The threat of an international tribunal hangs over its leaders because of their alleged involvement in former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri's murder. A new peace process could divert international attention and persuade the major powers that making peace is more important than bringing Hariri's killers to justice.

Plus, at least part of Syria's leadership also worries about the regime's increasing reliance on the Islamic Republic in Tehran - which has led to Syria's unprecedented isolation in the Arab world.

Even in Lebanon, the cost for Syria is high. For decades, Syria was the main foreign influence in Lebanon. Now Iran has taken its place, and Syria must rely on two Iranian-sponsored and -financed outfits, the Shiite Hezbollah and the Maronite bloc led by ex-Gen. Michel Aoun.

The extent of Iranian influence in Lebanon became clear during last week's Lebanese peace talks in Doha, Qatar: The Hezbollah delegation leader, Muhammad Hassan Raad, had to leave the conference four times to "check things out" with Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Motakki.

Worse still, Iran has built up a network of influence in Syria itself by investing in businesses that employ thousands and distribute favors among the ruling elite. Iranian influence in the Syrian military and security services must concern some Damascus leaders.

Damascus was the capital of Yazid, the Umayyid caliph who ordered the slaying of Hussein bin Ali, the third Imam of Shiism. Conquering the city has been a dream of Hussein's descendants since 680.

Ayatollah Ali Husseini Khamenei, Iran's "supreme guide," claims descent from Hussein. As Iran's president in 1988, he paid a state visit to Damascus with unusual pomp - boasting that he was going to Damascus to show that "Yazid is dead while Hussein is alive and conquering."

Religious and symbolic considerations aside, Iran wants to control Syria and Lebanon as advance posts in what it sees as its inevitable war against Israel. Its efforts in Syria include creating the largest Shiite theological seminary outside Iran, plus a massive campaign of "Shiificiation" via 14 Iranian "cultural centers" recently opened in Syrian provinces.

"We are facing an existential threat," says a senior Syrian personality. "Tehran wants to transform Syria into an Islamic republic in all but name."

Syria's leaders can't counter the Iranian threat without finding friends elsewhere, notably among moderate Arab states, the Europeans and the United States.

Israel, for its part, regards some measure of normalization with Syria as an urgent priority. A less hostile Syria would make it more difficult for Iran to threaten Israel with asymmetric warfare via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

Cynics might also suggest that Israel's beleaguered prime minister, Ehud Olmert, is using talks with Syria as a diversion from his troubles with the police in connection with allegations of corruption and money laundering. Even if indicted and forced to resign, Olmert could at least bow out with the claim that he revived Syrian peace talks.

The Bush administration, meanwhile, also hopes for some good Middle East news to burnish its legacy. Peace with Syria would be a miracle, hiding the fact that there's no progress on the Palestinian front.

Why did Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan play the key role in restoring Syria-Israel contacts? Turkey doesn't wish to be sandwiched between a hostile Islamic Republic in Iran and its client regime in Syria. The Irano-Syrian axis isolates Turkey further, since Turkish relations with Iraq remain tense because of the Kurdish issue.

There's also a domestic Turkish angle. Some in the moderate Islamic coalition that swept Prime Minister Recep Tayyib Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) to power have never been comfortable with Turkey's close ties to Israel. At least a dozen AKP parliamentarians have pressed Erdogan to scale back. Renewed Israel-Syria contacts could ease those pressures, strengthening Erdogan at home and regionally.

Will the talks get anywhere? One should never lose hope, but the chances of peace breaking out remain low. Syria can't easily abandon Iran, something that Israel is demanding as a precondition. And Israel can't commit itself to handing back the Golan Heights, which Syria insists upon as a precondition.

Regimes of opposite natures can never make peace with one another. At best, they can reduce tension and, perhaps, conclude a cease-fire. Right now, though, even that remains a remote possibility as far as Israel and Syria are concerned.