AS THE 26 leaders of the NATO Alliance gather in Bucharest
this week for the organization's 59th summit, there will be simmering tensions
between the United States
and what Donald Rumsfeld memorably described in 2003 as "Old Europe."
As the Bucharest meeting will show, the
traditional rifts between Germany
and France and America on some
of the biggest foreign policy questions of the day is still firmly in place.
The notion that Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Nicolas Sarkozy are
ushering in a new era of transatlantic cooperation, with Europe and the United States
walking hand in hand solving the world's problems is a romanticized fiction
that bears little relation to reality.
It is true that the venomous anti-Americanism of Gerhard Schröder and Jacques
Chirac has been replaced by a softer and subtler message, and the rhetoric
coming from the Chancellery and the Elysee
Palace is less openly hostile, but the
harsh fact remains that France
and Germany's
foreign and domestic policies are largely unchanged. The United States and the Franco-German axis are
still worlds apart on the war on terror, Iraq,
Russia,
the Middle East Peace process, global warming, trade, economic policy, and
social and religious outlook. Public opinion in both countries is still
overwhelmingly anti-American, a long-term trend that will almost certainly
outlast the Bush administration. Only on the issue of Iran has there been a significant shift in
policy in the case of France,
with Sarkozy advancing a tough message to the Mullahs of Tehran. Germany has been far less willing however to
support a rigorous sanctions regime against Tehran, with 5,000 German companies still
operating there.
The French and Germans remain the dominant powers in Brussels, the administrative center of the
European Union, and are the driving force behind the EU's Common Foreign and
Security Policy and European Security and Defense Policy. Like their
predecessors, both Sarkozy and Merkel remain committed to what is commonly
known as "the European Project," or the drive towards ever closer
union within the EU.
Both leaders are champions of the new European Union Reform Treaty (Treaty
of Lisbon) which is to all intents and purposes a reheated European
Constitution, almost the same document that the French and Dutch publics
emphatically rejected in referenda two years ago. The Treaty is a blueprint for
a European superstate, with proposals for a long-term EU president, an EU
foreign minister, a European diplomatic corps, a pan European magistracy, and a
federal EU police force. Nicolas Sarkozy might not talk of the EU as a rival
pole of power to the United States on the world stage, as his Gaullist
predecessors did, but in practice his European policies advance exactly the
same goal, with an even more distinctly protectionist bent.
On his trip to London
last week, the new French president spoke warmly of his British neighbors and
declared a new era in Anglo-French relations. In reality however, both sides
distrust each other, and the British still remain far closer militarily,
culturally, and economically to the United States than they do to their
Gallic cousins. In contrast, Franco-German cooperation within the EU advances
at every level in international organizations, from the United Nations to the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Indeed it is not uncommon for Paris and Berlin
to be represented by a single official at the negotiating table, jointly
representing the two power's interests.
Unsurprisingly, Germany
and France have joined
forces this week to oppose President Bush's proposal to bring pro-Western Ukraine and Georgia
into NATO's Membership Action Plan, a critical first step towards the admission
of the two former Soviet satellites into the Alliance. Chancellor Merkel, backed by Paris, has threatened to
use her veto if the Americans push ahead with the issue. Her spokesman has
cited Russia's
"legitimate security concerns" as the key reason for Berlin's opposition, in effect giving Moscow a huge and unacceptable say over
NATO's internal affairs. Germany's
weak-kneed approach towards the Russians sets a dangerous precedent, and
threatens to derail any further expansion of the alliance beyond Albania, Croatia
and Macedonia.
It also pits much of continental western Europe against the new eastern and
central European members of NATO. Above all it reflects a fundamental divide
between Washington's vision of advancing and
protecting liberty in eastern Europe, and Paris
and Berlin's
immediate concern of keeping the Russian bear happy. As Georgian President
Mikheil Saakashvili commented to the Financial Times on Merkel's call
for a united front against his country's admission: "I think this is a
very, very wrong argument. NATO united around what? Around appeasement? We've
seen Europe united once like this in the last
century and we saw where it led."
Germany, and to some
extent France, will also
find themselves at loggerheads with the United
States over the NATO mission in Afghanistan. Washington's request for
a greater, no-strings attached military contribution by both countries is
likely to fall on deaf ears. Germany
and France
combined have around 4,700 troops serving as part of the International Security
Assistance Force (ISAF), but they are based away from the main battlefields in
the south and rarely see combat. German forces, like those of many European
countries, are protected by a series of "caveats" aimed at keeping
them out of harm's way, and are reportedly banned by their political chiefs
from traveling more than two hours away from a major medical facility or from
flying at night.
Sarkozy has indicated that Paris may offer an
extra 1,000 troops for the Afghan mission at the Bucharest summit, but it is unlikely they
would be sent to the war zone and probably would not make a significant
difference to the war effort. In addition, the French president's demand that
this offer be linked to U.S.
and British support for an independent EU defense identity within NATO is
likely to be rejected, killing the deal. There is also the not insignificant
matter of strong French public and parliamentary opposition to sending more
troops abroad, which could bar Sarkozy from even enacting his offer.
In contrast, the English-speaking nations of Great Britain, the United
States, Canada and Australia (a NATO partner) have over 26,000 troops fighting
in the NATO mission (over 60 percent of the total), and are actively engaged in
military operations against the Taliban. The British, whose 8,000-strong troop
deployment is almost as big as that of France, Germany, Italy and Spain
combined, even sent their third in line to the throne, Prince Harry, to serve
in extremely dangerous conditions on the frontline in Helmand Province. As of
February 2008, the English-speaking countries had lost nearly 650 troops in Afghanistan
since 2001, or 85 percent of the more than 760 ISAF soldiers killed. The rest
of the Coalition has lost 115 men.
As the Afghanistan mission has shown, NATO has become a two-tier body, with
a small group of Anglosphere countries carrying the bulk of the military and
financial burden, with most of Europe's big players (the Dutch and Poles aside)
looking on without pulling their weight. At the same time, they are opposing a
further expansion that would strengthen the association and constrain Russian
bullying in Europe. It is a half-hearted
approach that is undermining the alliance and could ultimately destroy it. The
Bucharest Summit, far from healing wounds, may actually exacerbate them,
exposing the deep fault lines that divide what has until now been the most
effective international organization of our time. Unfortunately, there is
little evidence that Germany
and France,
or what was once dubbed "Old Europe," have the vision or commitment
to help keep the alliance alive.