I believe that Barack Obama will defeat Hillary and win the
Democratic nomination. I think that this weekend’s victories in states
as diverse as Washington State, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Maine
illustrates his national appeal and demonstrates Hillary’s inability to
win in states without large immigrant and Latino populations.
Hillary’s results on Super Tuesday, which amounted to a draw with
Obama, will be her high water mark and will represent the closest she
will ever come to the party nomination.
Right now, CBS has Obama ahead in elected delegates with 1134, while
Hillary has only 1131.By the time Virginia, Maryland, DC, Wisconsin,
and Hawaii vote during the next week, Obama will have a lead over
Clinton of about 100 delegates, even counting the super delegates who
have thus far committed themselves.
March 4th will, at worst, be a wash for Obama with his probably wins
in Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont offsetting his probable defeat in
Texas. (Although in Texas’ open primary, Republicans and Independents
may flock to the Dem primary to beat Hillary).
And then come a list of states almost all of which should go for
Obama, including likely victories in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and
Indiana. By the convention, he will have more than enough delegates to
overcome the expected margins Hillary may rack up among super delegates.
And don’t bet on all the super delegates staying hitched to Hillary.
These folks are politicians, half of them public office holders who are
really good at reading the handwriting on the wall and really bad at
gratitude for past favors.
Since 2004, I have predicted that Hillary Clinton would be the
nominee. But, given the consistently amazing performance of Obama, his
superior organizational and fund-raising skills, his inspiration of
young people, and the flat and completely uninspiring performance by
Hillary, it looks to me like it will be Obama as the Democratic nominee.